Foreign trade factories are deeply worried

外贸人

Foreign trade factories are deeply worried: it is difficult to receive orders, and it is also difficult to receive orders

Data shows that China's foreign trade orders in the first quarter fell by 40% overall, among which traditional foreign trade products fell by more than 50%, and the overall industry tended to be sluggish. The major ports along the Chinese coast, which were once fully loaded with containers, are no longer prosperous. From the perspective of the overall export amount, the foreign trade volume in January 2023 fell by about 9% year-on-year; from the perspective of ship carrying rate, the overall transportation volume has been cancelled by more than 30%.

As the world's largest manufacturing country, China has always been the largest trading partner at the front end of the supply chain of developed countries before the downturn in 2023. From the perspective of 2022 alone, China's total foreign trade in goods was about 42 trillion yuan. Among them, the export amount increased by about 2.3 trillion yuan, the import increased by about 18,100 yuan, and the average trade volume increased by about 8% year-on-year, ranking first in the world for six consecutive years, which is in stark contrast to the sluggish start of foreign trade this year.

Statistics show that there are about 6.41 million foreign trade industries in China, and the distribution is as follows: wholesale and retail industries account for 51%; industrial manufacturing accounts for 18%; scientific research and technical services account for 9%; commercial industry services account for 8%; information technology and information services account for 9%; other industries account for about 5%, and the overall foreign trade enterprises are developing in a diversified trend.

However, with the decline in trade order data, foreign trade factories generally have the trouble of receiving orders, and some factories are still very worried even if they receive orders. It may be caused by the following aspects:

√. Changes in the economic attitude of Europe and the United States towards China

As the world's largest supply chain and manufacturing power, China has always been favored by European and American companies. Because China's population resources are relatively sufficient, it is very suitable to undertake the transfer of some labor-intensive enterprises in Europe and the United States. Looking back on the history of China's foreign trade development, since China opened up to the outside world in 1978, major European and American countries have thrown olive branches to China. Up to now, it has been divided into four stages:

1. 1978-1990 (the initial trade period between Europe and the United States and China). In 1978, the total trade volume was about 20.7 billion US dollars; in 1990, China's total import and export trade volume reached about 116 billion US dollars, accounting for 1.7% of the total world trade volume, and the world ranking jumped from outside the 20th place in 1978 to 13th in the world. The reasons for the rapid growth of total import and export volume during this period:

First, due to the optimization of trade product structure, the processing trade of industrial products gradually occupied the mainstream position, and in 1981, the main proportion of industrial finished products accounted for 53%;

Second, in the mid-1980s, China's light industrial manufacturing industry (textiles and clothing) replaced the energy export (petroleum) industry and became the first category of China's export products, which marked the transformation of China's export commodity types from resource-intensive to labor-intensive.

2. 1991-2001 (the period of rapid development of trade between Europe and the United States and China). This decade is still a decade of rapid development of China's foreign trade industry. By comparing the data, it was mentioned earlier that it was about 116 billion yuan in 1990, but it had grown to about 510 billion yuan in 2001.

And the proportion of the total world foreign trade has reached more than 4%, and the world ranking has risen to sixth. During this period, due to the disintegration of the Soviet Union, European and American countries have loosened their policies towards China, and Japan, the United States, and the European Union continue to rank in the top three on the list of China's trading partners.

3. 2001-2022 (period of change in attitudes of Europe and the United States towards China). During this period, China and European and American countries experienced economic downturns such as the financial crisis, and also experienced a period of rapid development of the Belt and Road Initiative. China gradually transformed from a manufacturing power to a manufacturing power.

4. 2023-Present (European and American obstruction period to China). During this stage, in order to reduce their dependence on Chinese manufacturing, European and American countries took most of their industries to Southeast Asia and India, which led to a decline in foreign trade orders. From this, it can be seen that it is difficult for China to receive foreign trade orders.

√. Made in China has not yet reached Created in China

On the one hand, due to the withdrawal of most foreign-funded enterprises, some Chinese factories have lost the support of core technologies; on the other hand, due to the fact that Made in China is not strong yet and lacks independent core technologies, Chinese foreign trade enterprises are unable to produce products that satisfy customers even after receiving orders, and are more worried about receiving orders.

In summary, Chinese foreign trade enterprises are currently facing a big trouble, but this is both a risk and a challenge. How to adjust the direction of foreign relations and trade and adhere to independent manufacturing has become a difficult problem facing the development of China's foreign trade.